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12-18 Jul 2025

Published: July 19, 2025

SYRIA SITREP: 12 July - 18 July (Published: 19 July)

Executive Summary

The reporting period was dominated by a catastrophic eruption of violence in Suwayda governorate, marking the most significant security crisis of Syria’s post-Assad transition. Inter-communal tensions between local Druze militias and Bedouin tribes rapidly escalated from kidnappings into heavy clashes, killing over 30 people by 13 July. The subsequent intervention by Syrian government forces was met with a deadly ambush and the execution of captured soldiers, triggering a full-scale military operation. The crisis drew in Israel, which launched an unprecedented air campaign, striking military targets across southern Syria and hitting the Ministry of Defense and Presidential Palace grounds in Damascus. By the end of the week, a fragile, internationally-brokered ceasefire was in place, but only after government forces had withdrawn, leaving Druze militias in control of Suwayda city, hundreds dead, and a major humanitarian crisis unfolding with thousands of Bedouin displaced.

This security collapse overshadowed a parallel political failure, as the fallout from stalled negotiations with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) on 9 July manifested in heightened military tensions and clashes along the Euphrates River. The government reiterated its rejection of federalism, hardening its stance as the path to integrating the northeast appeared to founder.

Despite the spiraling violence, significant diplomatic and economic activity continued. President al-Sharaa’s state visit to Azerbaijan secured a crucial natural gas deal, and the government finalized an $800 million contract with the UAE’s DP World to develop Tartus Port. This demonstrates a dual reality in Syria: while unresolved territorial and communal conflicts pose an existential threat to stability, the transitional government continues to pursue high-level state-building and economic reconstruction.

Key watchpoints for the coming week are the durability of the Suwayda ceasefire and the management of its humanitarian fallout, and whether the diplomatic impasse with the SDF will escalate into Syria’s next major conflict.

Detailed Analysis

1. Politics

International Affairs
  • President Ahmed al-Sharaa conducted a state visit to Baku, Azerbaijan, on 12 July, meeting with President Ilham Aliyev to discuss energy, humanitarian, and cultural cooperation. The visit resulted in a significant energy agreement.
  • Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaybani traveled to Brussels on 14 July, where he met with EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas and the foreign ministers of Spain, Austria, Lithuania, and Jordan.
  • Amid the Suwayda crisis, intensive diplomatic calls occurred. President al-Sharaa received calls from the leaders of Qatar, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia on 17 July. FM al-Shaybani spoke with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan (16 July), UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy (18 July), and UN Special Envoy Geir Pedersen (17 July) to discuss de-escalation.
  • Jordan played a key mediation role, with Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi hosting Syrian FM al-Shaybani and U.S. Special Envoy Thomas Barrack in Amman on 18 July to broker the Suwayda ceasefire.
  • A Kuwaiti delegation led by Interior Minister Sheikh Fahd Yusuf Saud al-Sabah arrived in Damascus on 15 July for an official visit.
  • The UN Security Council convened a session on 17 July to address the violence in Suwayda, with member states demanding an end to hostilities and Israeli military action. On the same day, the Foreign Ministers of 11 regional countries, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, issued a joint statement affirming Syria’s sovereignty and rejecting foreign interference.
  • Media reports on 12 July indicated that Syrian and Israeli officials held a meeting in Baku, concurrent with President al-Sharaa's visit, though he did not attend.
Domestic Affairs
  • Tensions between Damascus and the SDF escalated following the failure of mediated talks on 9 July. This week saw sporadic military clashes and the government closure of crossings in Deir ez Zour. A government statement reaffirmed its commitment to "one Syria, one army, one government," rejecting any form of federalism.
  • In Suwayda, Druze cleric Sheikh Hamoud al-Hinawi appealed for de-escalation on 13 July as clashes began. Following the government's withdrawal, rival cleric Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri on 17 July celebrated the "cleansing of terrorists" and called for international protection and the opening of new border crossings to Jordan and SDF areas.
  • The Supreme Committee for the People’s Assembly Elections held meetings with Arab ambassadors on 14 July and delegations from Aleppo on 17 July to discuss the upcoming electoral process.
  • Syria’s Supreme Fatwa Council issued a ruling on 18 July declaring it religiously unlawful to seek assistance from Israel, harm civilians, or incite sectarianism, while obligating the state to protect all civilians and minorities.

2. Business

Major Infrastructure and Investment Deals
  • The Syrian government signed a landmark $800 million contract with the UAE’s DP World on 13 July for the "investment, operation, expansion and management" of Tartus Port. President al-Sharaa presided over the ceremony.
  • During a visit to Baku, Energy Minister Mohammed al-Bashir signed an agreement on 12 July with Azerbaijan’s SOCAR to provide Syria with natural gas via Turkey.
  • The Minister of Transport and the Governor of Damascus met with a delegation from the UAE’s National Investment Company for Projects on 17 July to discuss a proposal for the Damascus Metro project.
Trade and Transport
  • All border crossings with Turkey began operating 24 hours a day starting 14 July, a move intended to boost trade and transit.
  • The first Emirates flight from the UAE landed at Damascus International Airport on 16 July.
  • Aleppo Governor Azzam al-Gharib announced that Turkish Airlines, Ajet, and Qatar Airways would begin operating regular flights to Aleppo starting in August, signaling a major restoration of air connectivity.
  • The Ministry of Agriculture signed an agreement with the World Food Programme (WFP) on 14 July to provide assistance to farmers affected by severe drought.
Economic and Fiscal Policy
  • The Ministry of Finance on 15 July unveiled a new draft income tax system designed to simplify procedures and create a more favorable investment climate. The proposal includes a tax exemption for annual incomes under $12,000.
  • President al-Sharaa hosted Saudi Arabia’s Assistant Minister of Investment, Abdullah bin Ali Al-Dubaikhi, in Damascus on 14 July to discuss expanding economic ties.

3. Security

Catastrophic Escalation in Suwayda
  • The week began with a dramatic escalation of violence in Suwayda. After a cycle of retaliatory kidnappings between Bedouin tribesmen and Druze gunmen, heavy clashes erupted on 13 July, resulting in at least 30 killed and 100 injured in Suwayda city and its surroundings.
  • On 14 July, the Syrian government intervened, deploying military and special forces. A government convoy was immediately ambushed by Druze militiamen, with at least 10 soldiers killed, several of whom were summarily executed.
  • Fighting raged through 15 July. A ceasefire agreement between the government and local leaders was announced but immediately rejected by hardline Druze cleric Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, leading to renewed clashes and the start of a major Israeli air campaign.
  • Following intense international mediation, another ceasefire was agreed upon late on 16 July, leading to the withdrawal of all government forces. By 17 July, Druze militias under al-Hijri had taken full control of Suwayda city.
  • Widespread reports emerged of Druze reprisal attacks against Bedouin communities, including executions and looting. In response, a Bedouin counter-offensive, bolstered by a nationwide tribal mobilization, began advancing into Suwayda, leading to further intense combat.
  • A comprehensive, U.S. and regionally-mediated ceasefire was announced on 18 July, though its implementation remained fragile. The violence resulted in hundreds of casualties and the displacement of thousands, primarily from the Bedouin community, into Daraa.
Unprecedented Israeli Military Intervention
  • Israel dramatically escalated its military actions in response to the Suwayda crisis. It conducted at least 13 ground incursions into Quneitra between 12-18 July.
  • On 16 July, Israel launched a massive air campaign involving at least 34 strikes. Targets included Syrian military positions in Daraa and Suwayda, but most notably, strikes hit the Ministry of Defense building in Damascus, killing three civilians and injuring 34, and the grounds of the Presidential Palace.
  • Throughout the week, Israeli drones and aircraft conducted numerous other strikes targeting Syrian Army vehicles and tribal forces involved in the Suwayda fighting, killing at least one soldier and demonstrably pouring fuel on the conflict. At least 20 government security personnel were reportedly killed in Israeli strikes on 15 July alone.
ISIS and Other Security Incidents
  • ISIS remained active, launching a deadly raid on an Asayish (SDF security) checkpoint south of Hasakeh on 14 July that killed at least five fighters. The group conducted several smaller ambushes and attacks targeting SDF personnel in Deir ez Zour.
  • An SDF raid on 17 July in Raqqa city led to the detention of 33 suspected ISIS operatives. A joint U.S.-SDF raid on 12 July captured an ISIS commander in northern Deir ez Zour.
  • Targeted killings of former Assad regime figures and sectarian-linked violence continued, with incidents reported in Aleppo, Tartus, Hama, and Damascus.
  • Unexploded ordnance (UXO) continued to claim civilian lives, with fatal incidents reported in Aleppo (4 civilians killed), Idlib (2 children killed), and Hama (1 child killed).
Humanitarian Security
  • The Latakia wildfires, which had raged for over a week, were brought under "complete control" by 15 July following a major international firefighting effort, including assistance from Qatar.
  • The conflict in Suwayda triggered a severe humanitarian crisis, with the governor of Daraa establishing an emergency committee on 18 July to respond to the influx of over 1,000 displaced families. Saudi Arabia sent a plane of humanitarian aid for victims of the Latakia fires.

Relevant Context

The Druze of Suwayda and the Seeds of Conflict: The Druze are a distinct religious minority concentrated in the southern governorate of Suwayda, a region historically known as Jabal al-Druze (Mountain of the Druze). Throughout the Syrian civil war, the community largely maintained a position of cautious neutrality, prioritizing self-preservation over taking sides. The fall of the Assad regime created a power vacuum that empowered local actors, particularly hardline militia leader Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri. The recent explosion of violence is rooted in this newfound assertiveness clashing with long-standing tensions between the Druze and neighboring Bedouin tribes over land, resources, and smuggling routes. This local dispute rapidly metastasized into a strategic crisis, pulling in the transitional government and, crucially, Israel, which appears keen to foster a friendly autonomous buffer zone on its border.

The Damascus-SDF Impasse: The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led military and political entity, controls roughly a third of Syria's territory in the northeast. The transitional government in Damascus views the reintegration of this territory as essential to restoring national sovereignty under its "one Syria, one army, one government" policy. Negotiations have stalled over the SDF’s core demand for a federal system that would grant it significant political and military autonomy. The definitive failure of the U.S. and French-mediated summit on 9 July, followed by this week’s military tensions and crossing closures in Deir ez Zour, highlights that this issue, alongside Suwayda, represents the most critical unresolved challenge to Syria's long-term stability.