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5-11 Jul 2025

Published: July 12, 2025

SYRIA SITREP: 5 July - 11 July 2025 (Published: 12 July 2025)

Executive Summary

This week was marked by significant diplomatic achievements for Syria's transitional government, juxtaposed with a dangerous breakdown in domestic political negotiations and escalating security threats. The most critical development was the formal restoration of diplomatic ties with the United Kingdom, accompanied by a £94.5 million aid package, and a state visit by President al-Sharaa to the UAE. These events, coupled with Syria's reintegration into the SWIFT banking system and the Union for the Mediterranean, signal accelerating international acceptance. In contrast, U.S. and French-mediated talks between Damascus and the SDF on political and military integration collapsed on July 9, heightening tensions in the northeast.

The security landscape was dominated by a massive, multinational firefighting effort in Latakia to combat devastating wildfires, for which an ISIS-linked group claimed responsibility. Meanwhile, Israel sustained its high tempo of ground incursions in Quneitra. Domestically, vigilante violence persisted, and a kidnapping incident on the Suwayda-Damascus highway on July 11 has created a new flashpoint for inter-communal conflict.

Key watchpoints for the coming period include the political and security fallout from the failed SDF-Damascus negotiations and the potential for the Suwayda incident to spiral into wider violence, testing the state's ability to manage local conflicts.

Detailed Analysis

1. Politics

International Affairs
  • United Kingdom formally re-established diplomatic ties with Syria during a visit by Foreign Secretary David Lammy to Damascus on July 5. The UK also announced plans for a UK-Syria Business Council and pledged an additional £94.5 million in immediate aid. Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaybani confirmed plans to re-open Syria’s Embassy in London.
  • President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Foreign Minister al-Shaybani traveled to the UAE on July 7 for economic and development talks with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
  • Foreign Minister al-Shaybani confirmed on July 7 that Syria had been reintegrated into the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM).
  • On July 7, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed he would formally revoke the terrorist designation of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) on July 8.
  • U.S. Special Envoy to Syria, Thomas Barrack, met with President al-Sharaa on July 9 and later stated in an interview that the SDF cannot have a federal system or independent government.
  • A series of high-level diplomatic meetings occurred in Damascus, including with ambassadors and envoys from Qatar, Oman, France, Spain, Belgium, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Netherlands, Italy, and Yemen.
  • Foreign Minister al-Shaybani received a phone call from his Kuwaiti counterpart on July 7 to discuss the reopening of Kuwait's Embassy in Damascus.
  • Government delegations traveled abroad for meetings, including to Qatar (Interior Ministry), Bahrain (Emergencies Ministry), Turkey (Transport Ministry), and The Hague (OPCW meeting).
Domestic Affairs
  • Failed SDF-Government Negotiations: U.S. and French-mediated talks in Damascus on July 9 between senior Syrian government officials and an SDF delegation led by Mazloum Abdi failed to make progress. A subsequent government statement reaffirmed its commitment to "one Syria, one army, one government" and rejected any form of federalization.
  • Transitional Governance and Appointments: President al-Sharaa issued decrees on July 9 establishing a Syrian Development Fund, a Sovereign Wealth Fund, and a Supreme Council for Economic Development. New appointments were made for assistant ministers and the heads of the Development Fund and Investment Authority.
  • Accountability and Justice: Former Education Minister Darem Dabaa was detained in Damascus on July 7, charged with corruption. On July 9, the former president of the Bar Association, Firas Mazhar Fares, was also detained. News emerged on July 11 that nine government security personnel had been detained on charges of committing vigilante killings.
  • Electoral Process: The Supreme Committee for the People’s Assembly Elections held meetings with UN Deputy Special Envoy Najat Rochdi on July 6 and with activists from Hasakeh and Raqqa.

2. Business

Re-integration into Global and Regional Economies
  • Central Bank Governor Abdulqader Hasriyeh confirmed on July 6 that Syria has been fully reintegrated into the global SWIFT financial transfer system.
  • A cargo ship docked in Tartus on July 8 with commercial goods and the first UN humanitarian aid delivery by sea. That same day, a shipment of packaging materials from Latakia Port marked the first Syrian export to the United States.
  • Turkey's Ambassador to Syria, Burhan Koroglu, announced on July 5 that trade between the two nations had expanded by 60% since December 2024.
  • The World Bank assessed on July 7 that Syria's GDP is expected to see 1% growth in 2025, following a contraction in 2024.
  • A Saudi delegation from the Riyadh Airports Company visited Damascus International Airport on July 10 to discuss investment opportunities.
Energy and Infrastructure Development
  • The Syria International Petroleum, Energy and Mineral Resources Exhibition opened in Damascus on July 7, with over 100 Syrian and international companies participating.
  • Energy Minister Mohammed al-Bashir held a series of meetings to discuss rehabilitating infrastructure, including with firms from the UAE, U.S., and UK (July 7), an Algerian delegation (July 9), and the CEO of U.S.-based HKN Energy (July 9).
  • Deir ez Zour Governor Ghassan Sayed Ahmed hosted a delegation from UCC International at the al-Taym Energy Facility on July 8 to discuss power plant construction.
  • Air travel options expanded, with the first flight from Aleppo to Dubai taking off on July 7 and the first Air Arabia flight from Sharjah, UAE, landing in Damascus on July 10.
Economic Policy and Finance
  • President al-Sharaa issued decrees on July 9 establishing the Syrian Development Fund, a Sovereign Wealth Fund, and a Supreme Council for Economic Development to guide recovery.
  • The government issued "executive instructions" on July 6 to activate public sector salary increases, which will prioritize teachers and be disbursed from late July.
  • The Central Bank and Ministry of Communications signed a memorandum of understanding on July 6 to create a joint working group to develop the country's financial technology (FinTech) industry.

3. Security

Latakia Wildfires and Multinational Response
  • Massive wildfires, which began earlier in the month, raged across Latakia's mountains throughout the week. By July 7, an estimated 14,000 hectares of forest had been destroyed, affecting over 5,000 people.
  • The ISIS-linked jihadist group Ansar al-Sunna claimed responsibility for starting the fires on July 5, stating it was a deliberate operation to displace the Alawite population.
  • A major international response mobilized to support Syrian firefighters, including aircraft and ground teams from Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, Cyprus, and Iraq. Firefighting teams from SDF-held territories also arrived to assist on July 11.
  • The UN allocated $625,000 from its humanitarian fund on July 10 to support the urgent response.
Israeli Military Activity in the Southwest
  • Israel sustained its campaign of ground incursions into Quneitra. At least 11 separate incursions were reported between July 5-11 into villages including al-Adnaniyah, al-Bariqah, al-Koudna, and al-Dawaya al-Kubra.
  • Actions included detaining several men for questioning and, on July 11, allegedly setting fires to clear brush near al-Rafid.
  • The Deputy Governor of Quneitra claimed in an interview on July 11 that Israel had occupied 6,000 hectares of Syrian agricultural land since December 2024.
Inter-Communal Tensions and Vigilante Violence
  • Trigger for Suwayda Conflict: On July 11, Bedouin tribal gunmen ambushed a truck on the Suwayda-Damascus highway, kidnapping the Druze driver and stealing the vehicle. This incident set the stage for retaliatory actions and has become a major flashpoint.
  • Vigilante Killings: Targeted killings continued, with victims including two members of the Murshidi religious minority in Hama (July 7), a Shia cleric close to Hezbollah in Homs (July 9), and a former Assad regime military security officer in Aleppo (July 10).
  • Counter-Crime and Counter-Narcotics: Security forces detained wanted former Assad regime commanders and militia members in Jisr al-Shughour, Daraa, and Latakia. Jordanian forces twice intercepted balloon-borne drug smuggling attempts from Suwayda, seizing a total of 55,000 captagon pills on July 6-7.
Persistent ISIS and Insurgent Activity
  • ISIS conducted several attacks, including an ambush that injured two AANES customs workers in Deir ez Zour on July 7 and another that injured several SDF fighters in Raqqa on July 11.
  • Joint U.S.-SDF raids resulted in the capture of two alleged ISIS commanders in al-Hol camp on July 10 and the detention of another operative in Deir ez Zour on July 11.
  • Government forces killed one ISIS operative during a raid in Binnish, Idlib, on July 8.
  • In Aleppo, two SDF fighters were killed on July 10 during a rare, failed cross-line incursion into government territory.
Unexploded Ordnance (UXO) and Accidents
  • UXO remained a significant threat, causing at least seven fatalities and numerous injuries in incidents across Idlib, Aleppo, Hama, and Rif Dimashq.
  • Accidental explosions of old munitions stores occurred in Idlib (July 7) and near Aleppo's Nayrab Airport (July 11), where a blast at an underground Assad-era facility injured 14 civilians.

Relevant Context

SDF-Damascus Relations: The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition dominated by the Kurdish YPG, controls a significant portion of northeastern Syria. Since the fall of the Assad regime, a framework for the SDF's integration into the Syrian state has been a central political challenge. The SDF seeks to maintain a high degree of political and military autonomy, as well as control over the region's natural resources. Conversely, the new transitional government in Damascus is adamant about establishing a unified, centralized state with a single national army and full sovereignty over all Syrian territory. The breakdown of U.S. and French-mediated talks on July 9 exposes this fundamental impasse. The failure to find a compromise risks renewed instability in the northeast, complicates counter-ISIS efforts, and leaves the region vulnerable to external pressures.

Latakia Wildfires and Sectarianism: The coastal province of Latakia is a historic heartland for Syria's Alawite minority, the sect of former president Bashar al-Assad, which formed the core of the previous regime's power structure. The claim of responsibility for the devastating wildfires by Ansar al-Sunna, an ISIS-linked Sunni extremist group, explicitly framed the arson as a targeted attack to displace the Alawite community. This act transforms a natural disaster into a potent symbol of sectarian terrorism. It threatens to reignite deep-seated tensions in a highly sensitive region and poses a severe challenge to the transitional government's efforts to foster national reconciliation and prevent a cycle of revenge and retribution.