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19-25 Jul 2025

Published: July 26, 2025

SYRIA SITREP: 19-25 July 2025 (Published: 26 July 2025)

Executive Summary

This week, Syria’s security and diplomatic landscape underwent significant shifts, dominated by the fallout from the intense violence in As-Suwayda. A fragile, internationally-mediated ceasefire, which came into effect on July 19, has largely held, allowing for the delivery of humanitarian aid and the evacuation of civilians, though sporadic clashes and deep-seated tensions persist. The crisis directly precipitated a major diplomatic development: the first direct, high-level talks between Syrian and Israeli officials, which took place in Paris under US and French mediation. These talks occurred after planned negotiations between Damascus and the SDF collapsed, signaling a potential realignment of diplomatic priorities.

Economically, the transitional government secured a major success with the inaugural Syrian-Saudi Investor Forum, which concluded with the signing of $6.4 billion in investment contracts for critical infrastructure, including a $2 billion metro system for Damascus. This influx of capital is expected to bolster the Syrian Pound and accelerate reconstruction efforts.

On the security front, a complete halt in Israeli airstrikes was observed, contrasting sharply with previous weeks. However, ISIS activity surged, with at least nine attacks recorded. A noteworthy joint operation between US forces and Syrian government security forces in Al-Bab resulted in the death of a senior ISIS commander. Vigilante killings targeting former regime elements remain a persistent and significant driver of lethal violence across the country.

Key watchpoints for the coming week are the durability of the As-Suwayda ceasefire and the progress of reconciliation efforts there, alongside the trajectory of the nascent Syria-Israel dialogue and its impact on the stalled talks with the SDF.

Detailed Analysis

1. Politics

International Affairs
  • Direct Syria-Israel talks were held in Paris, mediated by the United States and France. Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaybani and an intelligence delegation met with a delegation led by Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer on July 24 and July 25 to discuss de-escalation and security issues around the Golan Heights.
  • The Paris talks followed the collapse of planned negotiations between the Syrian government and the SDF. A government source issued a strong statement rejecting any dialogue based on threats or preconditions and reaffirming the state's unity.
  • Foreign Minister al-Shaybani also met with his French counterpart Jean Noel Barrot and US Special Envoy Thomas Barrack in Paris on July 25. They issued a joint statement agreeing to reinforce cooperation on counter-terrorism, support Syria's transition, and ensure regional stability.
  • Diplomatic engagement with regional and Western partners continued. A Syrian economic delegation traveled to Turkey on July 23 for talks with the US Treasury Department regarding sanctions relief. Interior Minister Anas Khattab hosted his Kuwaiti counterpart on July 20. Jordan's Prime Minister publicly confirmed his government's "fundamental role" in the As-Suwayda negotiations on July 22.
  • Military-to-military ties with Turkey were strengthened. A Syrian Defense Ministry delegation attended the IDEF 2025 defense exhibition in Turkey, and Turkey reportedly provided a shipment of Nurol Ejder armored personnel carriers. The Commander of Syria’s Air Force met with Turkey's Defense Minister on July 25.
  • In a significant legal development, the French Court of Cassation on July 25 accepted an appeal to repeal an arrest warrant against former president Bashar al-Assad on the basis of personal immunity.
  • Damascus's Public Prosecutor filed a public lawsuit on July 25 against former Lebanese minister Wiam Wahhab for inciting armed rebellion in As-Suwayda.
Domestic Affairs
  • Following intense conflict, a ceasefire in As-Suwayda was confirmed by the government on July 19. The government established an "emergency committee" in Damascus to coordinate the humanitarian response.
  • President Ahmed al-Sharaa on July 20 received the final report from the National Commission for Investigation and Fact-Finding into the March 2025 Coastal violence. The committee held a press conference on July 22, confirming the deaths of 1,426 people and the identification of 298 suspects.
  • The Ministries of Defense and Interior both announced on July 22 that they were launching separate investigations into alleged crimes and "field executions" committed during the recent violence in As-Suwayda.
  • President al-Sharaa made key appointments, including Omar al-Husari as the new Chairman of the General Civil Aviation Authority and Dr. Shadi al-Azmeh as Chairman of the Authority for Excellence and Creativity on July 23.
  • The Damascus Governorate announced on July 20 a 15-day deadline for government and commercial buildings to remove all symbols of the former regime.

2. Business

Major Saudi Investment and Economic Engagements
  • The Syrian-Saudi Investor Forum, held in Damascus, concluded on July 24 with the signing of 47 contracts and agreements valued at $6.4 billion.
  • Key projects include a $2 billion plan for a new Damascus Metro system, a multi-billion dollar residential-commercial zone in Homs, and several large-scale construction projects in the Damascus area, including a $900 million Medical City and a $500 million Entertainment City.
  • Saudi telecommunications companies STC and Elm signed contracts, and the al-Muhaidib Group agreed to a $200 million investment in heavy industry.
  • The Central Bank Governor announced on July 25 that the Saudi investments would help stabilize the Syrian Pound.
  • Separately, Syrian ministers held meetings with delegations from US energy firms Baker Hughes, Hunt Energy, and Argent LNG on July 20 to discuss potential investment opportunities.
Energy and Infrastructure Developments
  • It was confirmed on July 24 that Azerbaijan will begin supplying 1.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year to Syria via Turkey, starting August 1, to power plants in Aleppo and Homs.
  • The new Chairman of Syria’s General Civil Aviation Authority announced plans on July 24 to build a new Damascus International Airport and convert the former Mezzeh Airbase into a civilian airport for private travel.
  • A ship carrying 30,000 tonnes of grain docked at the Port of Latakia on July 19.
  • Two ships carrying a total of 77,000 tons of Syrian phosphates were loaded at the Port of Tartus on July 23 for export to Romania and Egypt.
New Economic Policies and Business Environment
  • The Ministry of Finance's new draft income tax system, which exempts annual incomes below $12,000, is undergoing a public consultation period until July 30.
  • The government on July 24 fixed the price for a household gas cylinder at $11.80.
  • The Ministry of Finance on July 21 suspended any further business license renewals for Talal Abu Ghazaleh’s enterprises in Syria, citing his recent public statements.

3. Security

Suwayda Ceasefire and Humanitarian Situation
  • A comprehensive ceasefire in As-Suwayda, brokered with US and regional involvement, took effect on July 19 and has largely held, though sporadic clashes and gunfire were reported on July 19, 20, 21, and 25.
  • The UN confirmed on July 20 that at least 128,000 people had been displaced. Convoys evacuated hundreds of Bedouin civilians into Daraa on July 21, 23, 24, and 25.
  • Humanitarian aid convoys led by the Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC), with support from the WFP and ICRC, entered As-Suwayda on July 22 and July 23. However, a government convoy with three ministers was blocked from entering by Druze militias on July 20.
  • The Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR) documented the deaths of 903 Syrians in As-Suwayda between July 13-21. The Druze militia Rijal al-Karama confirmed 46 of its fighters were killed.
Sharp Increase in ISIS Activity
  • ISIS activity surged, with at least nine attacks reported. A major joint operation was conducted in Al-Bab, northern Aleppo, late on July 24. US military forces, with security cordons provided by Syrian government forces, killed senior ISIS commander Dhiya’a al-Hardani and his two sons. CENTCOM confirmed the operation.
  • ISIS militants ambushed an SDF patrol in Deir ez-Zour on July 25, killing one fighter and injuring at least two others. Other attacks by ISIS targeting SDF checkpoints and patrols were reported in Deir ez-Zour and Raqqa, resulting in some injuries.
Israeli Military Actions and Border Security
  • In a significant de-escalation, no Israeli airstrikes were reported in Syria this week.
  • Israeli military forces conducted multiple ground incursions into villages in Quneitra governorate on July 19, 21, 22, 23, and 25.
  • On the southern border, Jordanian armed forces intercepted a drug smuggling attempt from As-Suwayda on July 22, killing one person. Syrian government forces intercepted another drug shipment on July 19.
  • Government forces on July 23 intercepted a shipment of weapons, including RPGs and rockets, in the Rif Dimashq desert that originated from SDF-held territory and was reportedly headed to As-Suwayda.
Vigilante Killings and Other Violence
  • Vigilante justice attacks targeting former Assad regime operatives and loyalists continued to be a major source of violence. Targeted killings were reported in Aleppo, Idlib, Hama, and Homs.
  • A warehouse storing ammunition detonated unexpectedly near Maarat Misrin, Idlib, on July 24, killing at least 7 civilians and injuring over 157 others.
  • Government forces detained an Egyptian jihadist figure, Ahmed Mansour, in northwestern Syria on July 23. They also detained a cell of pro-Assad insurgents in the Jableh area of Latakia on July 26, who were allegedly involved in the March coastal violence.

Relevant Context

The Suwayda Conflict: The recent explosion of violence in As-Suwayda, a Druze-majority governorate with a historical tradition of semi-autonomy, stems from a complex mix of local and geopolitical factors. The conflict was ignited by localized tensions between local Bedouin communities and Druze militias over smuggling routes and land, but it rapidly escalated into a major crisis. The intervention of Israel, which provided support to certain Druze factions led by Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, internationalized the conflict. This transformed the dynamic, hardening positions on all sides and leading to brutal reprisal attacks and significant civilian displacement. The crisis poses a severe test to the transitional government's ability to assert authority and prevent the country's fragmentation along unresolved territorial and sectarian lines.

Syria-Israel Direct Talks: The high-level meetings between Syrian and Israeli officials in Paris mark an unprecedented diplomatic development. For decades, the two nations have officially been in a state of war, with relations defined by hostility and indirect military confrontation. The Suwayda crisis, in which Israel’s direct intervention risked a wider war, created an urgent impetus for de-escalation. The subsequent talks, actively mediated by the United States, represent a pragmatic shift by both sides away from conflict and towards direct dialogue to manage border security. This development underscores the Trump administration's policy of engaging with the new Syrian government to secure regional stability and reflects a stark departure from the posture of the former Assad regime.