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28 Jun - 4 Jul 2025

Published: July 5, 2025

SYRIA SITREP: 2025-06-28 - 2025-07-04 (Published: 2025-07-05)

Executive Summary

This week was defined by a stark contrast between significant political-economic progress and escalating security pressures. The transitional government unveiled a new national identity—the 14-winged eagle—a major symbolic break from the Ba'athist past. This was bolstered by landmark international support, including a U.S. executive order terminating broad sanctions, high-level diplomatic calls, and the announcement of major investment deals, notably a $1.5 billion Kuwaiti-funded media city.

This momentum, however, was set against a backdrop of intensified instability. Israel conducted an unprecedented number of ground incursions into southern Syria, including a notable raid near Damascus, directly pressuring the new government. Internally, the security landscape remained volatile, with ISIS conducting lethal ambushes and an affiliated group claiming responsibility for massive wildfires that raged across Latakia. The government continued its accountability drive, detaining several senior former regime officials, including two ex-ministers implicated in the disappearance of children. Key watchpoints include the tangible economic impact of U.S. sanctions relief, the government's response to sustained Israeli military pressure, and growing friction between Arab tribes and the SDF in the northeast.

Detailed Analysis

This section provides in-depth coverage of the week's events. It is organized into three main numbered areas. Under 'Politics', 'Business' and 'Security', descriptive sub-chapter titles have been created based on the most significant themes emerging from this week's data.

1. Politics

A New National Identity
  • On July 3, President Ahmed al-Sharaa presided over a nationally televised ceremony to unveil Syria’s new national identity and emblem: a 14-winged eagle, representing the country's 14 governorates and the 14 years of the revolution.
International Diplomacy & Sanctions Relief
  • On June 30, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to terminate the broad Syria sanctions program, while keeping targeted sanctions on Assad-regime figures, human rights abusers, and designated terrorists.
  • On July 3, Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaybani received a phone call from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss sanctions removal, counter-terrorism, and Syrian-Israeli relations.
  • An unnamed government official stated on July 2 that reports of an imminent peace deal with Israel were "premature." In contrast, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar insisted on June 30 that any deal could not include a withdrawal from the Golan Heights.
  • High-level engagement continued as President al-Sharaa and FM al-Shaybani hosted UN Special Envoy Geir Pedersen (June 29), and ministers held separate meetings with UK Special Envoy Ann Snow (June 29).
  • Syrian delegations traveled to Jordan for workshops on local administration (July 2-3) and to Seville, Spain, for a UN conference on development (June 30).
  • Russia announced on July 1 it would invite Syria to the inaugural Russian-Arab Summit in Moscow on October 15.
  • Norway announced it had significantly eased sanctions on Syria (July 3), while Austria deported one Syrian man (July 3).
Domestic Governance & Transitional Justice
  • The government continued its accountability process, detaining several former Assad-regime officials. Key arrests included:
    • Col. Thaer Hussein, Assistant Director of Security at Sednaya Prison (July 1).
    • Gen. Rami Munir Ismail, a former commander of Air Force Intelligence (July 2).
    • Two former Ministers of Social Affairs, Kinda Shamatt and Rima Qadri, detained (July 2-3) on suspicion of complicity in the disappearance of children via their NGOs.
  • The Supreme Committee for the People’s Assembly Elections traveled to Hama, Latakia, Tartus, and Deir ez Zour to meet with local leaders (June 28-July 1).
  • On June 30, the Ministry of Administrative Development announced a committee to draft a new Civil Service Law.
  • The Syrian Islamic Council announced its dissolution on June 28.
  • A group of prominent Arab tribal leaders issued a public statement on July 2 calling on the U.S.-led coalition to cease support for the SDF and for Arab men to defect from the group.

2. Business

Major Investment and Reconstruction
  • President al-Sharaa presided over the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding on June 30 with Kuwait-headquartered al-Maha International for a $1.5 billion "Damascus Gate" media city.
  • Qatari company Baladna announced on July 3 it was developing plans for a $250 million dairy and juice facility in Syria.
  • Transport Minister Yaroub Badr met with French company Matiere on June 29 to discuss plans to reconstruct 37 bridges nationwide.
Economic Policy and Finance
  • The U.S. executive order on June 30 relaxed certain export controls to support economic recovery. (Related: See Politics/International Diplomacy)
  • Central Bank Governor Abdulqader Hasriya stated on July 4 that Syria "will not resort to external debts" from the IMF or World Bank.
  • The Ministry of Economy suspended all imports of used cars on June 30.
  • The Ministry of Finance announced on June 30 that the Syrian stock exchange would move to a five-day trading week.
  • The World Food Programme (WFP) activated a $7.9 million drought insurance payout to Syria on July 4.
Energy, Trade, and Transport
  • News emerged on June 28 that the government cancelled the contract with Russia's Stroytransgaz to operate Tartus Port.
  • At least 14,000 tonnes of Syrian phosphate was exported from Tartus Port to Egypt on July 1.
  • International air travel expanded as Turkey's AJet and Kuwait's Jazeera Airways resumed flights to Damascus (July 1-2).
  • Energy Minister Mohammed al-Bashir confirmed an agreement on July 2 to increase natural gas supply from Qatar via Jordan and Egypt.
  • The government cancelled the 'smart card' system for domestic gas distribution, effective July 6.

3. Security

Israeli Military Operations
  • Israel conducted at least 15 separate ground incursions into southern Syria, marking a significant escalation.
  • Quneitra: Daily incursions targeted numerous villages, including al-Ruwayhina, al-Mushayrifah, and Ayn al-Basta, where three men were briefly detained.
  • Daraa: Incursions targeted rural western Daraa (June 29), where two men were shot, and Saysoun and Ayn Dakhar.
  • Rif Dimashq: In a notable escalation, Israeli forces launched an incursion into Yafour, southwest of Damascus, on the night of July 3.
ISIS & Jihadist Activity
  • Latakia Wildfires: Massive wildfires broke out in Latakia's mountains on July 1. An ISIS-linked group, Ansar al-Sunna, claimed responsibility for starting the fires.
  • Direct Attacks: ISIS militants conducted multiple attacks, killing two government soldiers in an ambush in Hama (July 4), killing a former SDF fighter in al-Baghouz (July 3), and killing a civilian in al-Hurayjah (June 30).
  • Counter-Terrorism: A joint U.S.-SDF raid in Hasakeh on July 4 detained three suspected ISIS operatives.
Government Security & Counter-Narcotics
  • Counter-Narcotics: Security forces conducted major seizures, including 1.7 million captagon pills in Daraa (June 29) and 500,000 pills near al-Nabk (June 28). Jordanian forces intercepted multiple drug-laden drones from Suwayda.
  • Weapons Interdiction: Government forces intercepted a weapons shipment allegedly for Hezbollah in al-Qusayr (July 3) and seized Grad rockets in al-Mayadin (July 1).
  • Internal Discipline: The Interior Ministry dismissed over 200 newly recruited security personnel in Daraa (July 1-2) for "behavioral violations" and misconduct.
Localized Violence & Instability
  • SDF-Related Tensions: An SDF fighter shot and killed a 14-year-old boy in Raqqa city on July 2, sparking significant local anger and protests. The SDF also conducted numerous detention campaigns across the northeast.
  • Targeted Killings: A wave of assassinations continued, with victims including an Iraqi imam in Idlib (June 28), a former regime collaborator in Zabadani (June 30), and a former Alawite officer and his wife in Homs (July 3).
  • UXO Incidents: Unexploded ordnance (UXO) caused at least five deaths and multiple injuries across Idlib, Homs, Deir ez Zour, and Hama.

Relevant Context

The New National Identity (14-Winged Eagle): The unveiling of the new national emblem is a deeply symbolic act aimed at forging an inclusive national identity for post-Assad Syria. The previous emblem, the Hawk of Quraish, was associated with pan-Arab nationalism and Ba'ath Party rule. The new design, a 14-winged eagle, explicitly breaks from this past. It evokes the historical Eagle of Saladin while the 14 wings represent both Syria's 14 governorates and the 14 years of the revolution. This rebranding is a strategic move to project unity, legitimize the new government based on the revolution's narrative, and visually distance the state from its predecessor.

U.S. Sanctions Executive Order: The executive order signed on June 30 represents a major shift in U.S. policy. Comprehensive sanctions under laws like the Caesar Act were designed to isolate the Assad regime. The new order "terminates the Syria sanctions program" as it applies to the new transitional government, removing major legal barriers to reconstruction and investment. While keeping targeted sanctions on bad actors, this is a critical tool intended to enable economic recovery, support the new administration, and counter the influence of remaining hostile groups by fostering legitimate economic activity.

Israeli Incursions and the 1974 Disengagement Agreement: The recent surge in Israeli ground incursions into the southern buffer zone is a significant violation of the 1974 Disengagement of Forces Agreement, which established a UN-monitored demilitarized zone. For decades, this agreement maintained a stable quiet. The current raids—involving detentions, shootings, and leaflet drops—are a deliberate pressure tactic by Israel on the new Syrian government. They occur amid peace negotiations and are likely intended to shape the terms of any future security agreement by testing the resolve and capabilities of the new Syrian state.