SITREP: 4-10 Jan 2025 | SALT Strategic Advisory

SYRIA SITREP: 2025-01-04 - 2025-01-10 (Published: 2025-01-11)

Executive Summary

The week of January 4-10, 2025, saw significant diplomatic and internal political activity in Syria, alongside persistent security challenges. The HTS-led transitional government engaged in a flurry of international meetings, notably with Bahraini and Italian Foreign Ministers, and a U.S. State Department advisor, signaling growing international recognition and calls for sanctions relief. Domestically, the government focused on economic reforms, including a planned public sector salary boost and agricultural incentives, while also initiating efforts to restructure armed forces and re-arrest former regime criminals. Security remained volatile, marked by continued Turkish military operations against SDF in the northeast, Israeli actions in the southwest, and widespread internal security operations by HTS-linked forces targeting regime loyalists, criminal networks, and unexploded ordnance. A notable trend was the HTS-led government's assertive moves to consolidate control and establish governance across various sectors, including a new "Syrian Coast Guard" and significant weapons surrenders in Daraa. Key watchpoints include the progress of the announced national conference and the ongoing efforts to stabilize areas recently brought under transitional government control amidst continued external and internal security threats.

Detailed Analysis

1. Politics

International Affairs

On January 7, Syria’s interim Minister of Health Dr. Maher al-Sharaa met with Qatar’s Ambassador to Syria Khalifa Abdullah al-Sharif and a delegation from Qatar’s Red Crescent to discuss health needs and avenues for Qatari support.
On January 8, HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa and Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaybani welcomed a visit by Bahraini Foreign Minister Dr. Abdullatif al-Zayani in Damascus, who declared readiness to expand joint cooperation and called for lifting all economic sanctions on Syria.
On January 8, U.S. State Department Senior Near East Advisor Daniel Rubinstein held a meeting with HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus, discussing internal security, countering terrorism, and the need to ease sanctions pressures.
On January 10, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaybani hosted a delegation headed by Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani in Damascus, who focused on the need for international sanctions to end, combating criminal activities, and starting new relations. Tajani announced a new path for relations between Italy and Syria.
On January 7, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan declared that his government would launch a major military operation against the YPG (SDF) if demands were not met, including the expulsion of all foreign fighters. Fidan also stated that Turkiye did not seek to "dominate" Syria.
On January 7, media reporting cited the French Foreign Minister as claiming that "EU sanctions on Syria related to humanitarian aspects may be lifted swiftly," with Germany reportedly leading efforts for significant sanctions waivers.
On January 8, the UAE announced the immediate suspension of all flights to or from Syria without explanation.
On January 8, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin declared that the 2,000 American forces in Syria needed to remain to avoid an ISIS resurgence.
Late on January 9, the Foreign Ministers of the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Italy, and the European Union met in Italy to discuss a shared vision for Syria and its political transition.
On January 10, news reporting claimed that U.S., French, and German governments had warned the HTS-led transition against appointing non-Syrians into positions of military leadership, citing it as a security threat.

Domestic Affairs

On January 7, Syrian Interior Minister Mohammed Abdulrahman paid a visit to Quneitra, inspecting police headquarters and other ministry offices.
On January 8, HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa held a meeting with Syrian opposition coalition leadership, including Dr. Badr Jamous and Hadi al-Bahra, in Damascus, described as "positive."
On January 8, Saad Naasan, the Aleppo provincial director for Political Affairs in the HTS-led transition, convened a meeting with the leadership of the Syrian Yazidi Council in rural Aleppo.
On January 8, the HTS-linked Governor of Damascus, Maher Mohammed Marwan, hosted a meeting with Syrian Americans in his office.
On January 10, Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaybani announced that Syria would "soon" lead a senior delegation to European countries and that "work is underway to hold a national conference... bringing together all Syrians."
On January 10, HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa hosted a large meeting with Syrian business leaders and industrialists in Damascus to discuss the state of the economy.
On January 10, HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa hosted a meeting with prominent Syrian cleric Sheikh Osama al-Rifai in Damascus.
On January 10, HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa and Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaybani hosted a meeting with a delegation of Syrian Americans in Damascus.
On January 7, Mustafa Kaj was announced as the new media coordinator for Syria’s General Authority for Civil Aviation and Air Transport.
On January 7, Mamdouh Hamadi was announced as the lead media officer at the Ministry for Water Resources.
On January 8, Major General Ali Nour al-Din al-Naasan was appointed Chief of Staff of Syria’s Armed Forces in Damascus.
On January 10, Mustafa Kawiyah was announced as the new President of Aleppo’s Chamber of Commerce, but later resigned due to protests over his past support for Assad’s regime; Mowayad al-Najjar was promptly named his replacement.
On January 10, Samer Biraqdar was appointed as Syria’s new Director of Endowments and as the Director of the Hajj and Umrah Authority.
On January 7, Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaybani announced that plans for a national conference would take time to ensure wide representation.
On January 10, the Ministry of Education announced that the subject "National Education" was to be permanently removed from Syria’s education curricula.

2. Business

Economic Revitalization & Foreign Investment

On January 7, news emerged that Qatar planned to cover the financial costs for a 400% boost in public sector salaries in Syria, requiring approximately $120 million per month. Some reports claimed Saudi Arabia also intended to provide financial support.
On January 7, Syrian Finance Minister Mohammed Abazeid claimed that a thorough assessment had concluded that Syria contained approximately 900,000 public sector employees, with a further 300,000 found to be non-working individuals receiving state salaries due to regime corruption.
On January 8, the HTS-led transition announced that any purchase and/or transportation of scrap metal was now illegal for 10 days (until January 18).
On January 8, Minister for Agriculture Dr. Mohammed al-Ahmed announced that his ministry would begin providing interest-free loans to incentivize investment in agriculture.
Media reporting this week highlighted a significant increase in car imports and sales via Syria’s border with Jordan, linked to recent reforms by the transitional government, including expanding car imports to vehicles manufactured from 2010-on, a new temporary license plate system, expedited driving permits, and removing transit and border fees.
On January 8, Jordan’s Minister of Electricity Saleh al-Kharabsheh announced that his government would soon send a "technical team" to Syria to assess the electricity grid and was ready to supply natural gas.
On January 9, Cham Wings Airlines announced it would resume flights between Damascus and Kuwait on January 10.
On January 10, Turkey’s Minister of Energy Alparslan Bayraktar announced that Turkey would begin providing 500MW of power to Aleppo by mid-2025.

Infrastructure & Trade Policy

On January 7, the Director of Syria’s Civil Aviation and Air Transport Authority, Ashdad Salibih, announced that Aleppo International Airport should re-open to commercial operations "within days."
On January 7, Minister of Oil Ghayth Diab announced that the Baniyas refinery was undergoing comprehensive repairs.
On January 9, Syria’s interim Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir and the Minister of Water Resources inaugurated a new water drinking facility in Latakia.
On January 9, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that all diplomatic missions abroad would begin issuing passports through an electronic system beginning on January 12.
On January 10, the HTS-led transition made a decision to convert all customs duties on Syria’s border crossings onto the same equal rate, resulting in a 300-500% rise in customs costs for businesses in northwest Syria, triggering protests and temporary business closures.

3. Security

Regional Conflict & External Actions

Israel:
- On January 8, Israeli military forces detained French journalist Sylvain Mercadier and Syrian civilian Mohammed Fayad near the disputed Golan Heights line of control in Quneitra. Both were later released after being beaten.
- On January 8, Israeli military forces launched a targeted raid on two small former regime military bases outside Hayran and al-Rufaydah in southern Quneitra, bulldozing all standing structures. They then conducted search operations in al-Ashah and Abu Ghara.
- Early on January 9, Israeli airstrikes reportedly targeted several buildings inside the regime’s former Khalkhala Airbase in rural Suwayda. No casualties were reported.
ISIS:
- On January 7, four SDF fighters were killed in an ISIS raid on their checkpoint in al-Jazrat in western Deir ez Zour. ISIS subsequently claimed responsibility.
- On January 9, local reporting claimed a U.S. airstrike targeted a group of shepherds moving through the desert outside al-Rusafa, presuming they were ISIS fighters. A casualty report was not confirmed.
Turkish Operations & SDF Clashes:
- On January 7, Turkish military forces launched a series of artillery barrages targeting SDF positions in villages surrounding Tel Tamr and Abu Raseen in Hasakeh.
- On January 7, a Turkish drone strike targeted a communications tower outside the village of Qaraqo west of Kobani in Aleppo.
- On January 7-8, heavy fighting continued between SNA and SDF-linked forces around Qaraqozak and along the main road leading to the Tishreen Dam opposite Kobani in Aleppo. On January 7, SDF forces shot down one Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drone. Turkey launched a series of airstrikes and heavy artillery barrages.
- On January 8, five civilians were killed and 15 more were injured when a convoy of civilian vehicles was targeted by a Turkish drone on the main road leading to the Tishreen Dam in the Manbij countryside, Aleppo.
- On January 8, Turkish drones launched at least three strikes on SDF positions and personnel in the Maarbadah area outside Qamishli in Hasakeh.
- On January 9, one Turkish soldier was reportedly killed in an SDF FPV suicide drone attack on a base in Arishah outside Ras al-Ayn in Hasakeh.
- On January 9, several Turkish drone strikes targeted SDF positions in the Khatouniyah and al-Jarniyah areas outside al-Tabqa in Raqqa.
- On January 9, SNA fighters launched artillery shells towards SDF-held villages of Umm al-Baramil and Makhlut outside Ayn Issa in Raqqa, and later towards Korak outside Raqqa city.
- On January 9, two SNA fighters were killed and several more were injured in an SDF FPV suicide drone attack that struck their position along the Deir Hafer frontline in Aleppo.
- On January 10, several consecutive Turkish drone strikes targeted SDF tunnels running out of Mount Qarajok in the al-Malikiyah district in Hasakeh. Another drone strike targeted an SDF vehicle in al-Malikiyah, killing two SDF-linked people.
- On January 10, at least four SNA fighters were killed during a cross-line incursion launched by SDF-linked fighters who utilized a secret tunnel to infiltrate SNA areas near SyriaTel hill on the Tishreen Dam frontline in Aleppo. Several Turkish airstrikes struck SDF-linked positions.
Iranian Proxy Activity:
- On January 8, HTS-linked forces discovered several artillery rocket launchers that had previously been set up and operated by Iranian proxy militias in the village of Ayn Ali south of al-Mayadin in Deir ez Zour to target U.S. military forces.

Internal Security Operations & Criminality

HTS-led Security Operations:
- On January 7, HTS-linked forces detained several drug dealers and seized 120,000 captagon pills and 12kg of hashish in Zabadani, Rif Dimashq, triggering clashes.
- On January 7, HTS-linked forces launched a major clearing and search operation in Zabadani, Rif Dimashq, for suspected regime weapons depots.
- On January 7, regime militia leader Nidal Yousef was captured by HTS-linked forces in a targeted raid in Jdeidat Artouz, Rif Dimashq.
- On January 7, HTS-linked forces captured the regime’s former chief of Criminal Security for al-Sanamayn, Major Omar Jumaa, in rural Daraa.
- On January 8, HTS-linked forces deployed to al-Sanamayn, Daraa, and held meetings with local notables demanding accountability against Mohsen al-Hamayd. A directive was issued for all weapons in al-Sanamayn to be surrendered within 24hrs.
- On January 9, gunmen in al-Sanamayn, Daraa, surrendered their weapons en masse, with removals continuing on January 10, monitored by an HTS surveillance drone.
- On January 9, HTS-linked forces detained one drug smuggler in Latakia city and seized a quantity of hashish and other drugs.
- On January 9, HTS-linked forces launched a series of coordinated security raids in Jubata al-Khashab, Masha’ara, and Joubah in Quneitra, searching for regime loyalists and militiamen linked to Iran and/or Hezbollah.
- On January 9, regime militia commander Mohammed al-Sibsi was captured by HTS-linked forces during a targeted raid in Aleppo’s al-Firdaws district.
- On January 9, the reconciliation and settlement centers in Homs city’s al-Zahraa and Wadi al-Dhahab districts resumed operations after a days-long HTS-led security operation.
- On January 10, HTS-linked forces launched coordinated search operations in Aleppo’s Salah ad Din and Salheen districts, capturing several regime loyalists.
- On January 10, HTS-linked General Security Service (GSS) personnel intercepted and seized a suspected truck bomb entering from SDF-held areas in Aleppo. The device was defused safely.
- On January 10, three former regime militiamen were captured by HTS-linked forces outside Damascus, accused of manning the al-Marayah checkpoint.
- On January 10, HTS-linked forces announced publicly that all residents in the Lajat region of Daraa had 48hrs to surrender all their weapons.
- On January 10, HTS-linked forces took control of a former military headquarters run by regime intelligence officer Mohammed Ali al-Rifai in Umm Walad, Daraa, seizing weapons and defusing explosives.
Assassinations & Executions:
- On January 7, one man was shot and killed by unidentified assassins in Tafas, Daraa.
- On January 7, three former regime loyalists, including Sheikh Jaber Issa, were shot dead by unidentified gunmen in an ambush outside Homs.
- On January 7, one man, identified locally as Abdulhamid Akilou, was shot dead by unidentified gunmen on a motorbike in al-Qurnah, northwestern Aleppo.
- On January 7, one man was shot dead during an armed clash in Jat outside Manbij, Aleppo.
- On January 8, the body of one man, showing signs of execution, was discovered in Maarat Misrin, Idlib.
- On January 8, three civilians were executed by unidentified gunmen during an attack on their farm outside Jableh, Latakia.
- On January 8, one civilian was shot dead by unidentified gunmen on his farm in Mousa al-Hawlah, southwestern Hama.
- On January 8, an Alawite cleric and his wife were kidnapped and later executed from Danibah outside al-Salamiyah, Hama.
- On January 8, the bodies of two men, showing signs of execution, were discovered dumped in a field outside Bari, rural al-Salamiyah, Hama.
- On January 8, four men, identified as former regime militiamen, were shot dead while working on a field in Tasnin outside Talbiseh, Homs.
- On January 8, the bodies of two men, showing signs of execution, were discovered in the al-Nuzhah district of Homs city, several days after their kidnapping.
- On January 9, a local goldsmith was shot dead inside his home by unidentified gunmen in al-Mayadin, Deir ez Zour.
- On January 9, one man was shot dead inside his home by unidentified gunmen in Hajar al-Aswad outside Tel Khalakh, Homs.
- On January 9, two men were kidnapped outside al-Qusayr, Homs, and their executed bodies were discovered the following day.
- On January 10, one Alawite man was shot dead by unidentified gunmen in rural Hama.
- On January 10, one man was shot dead at close range by an unidentified gunman and his body dumped into an irrigation canal in Homs’ al-Zahraa district.
- Late on January 9, unidentified gunmen captured the former regime mayor of Dummar district, Mazen Kaninah, in Damascus’ northwest and executed him, stringing his body up from a tree.
- On January 10, SNA forces discovered the corpse of Mohammed al-Hawash, showing signs of execution and having been set on fire, inside a burned out vehicle in Deir Hafer, Aleppo.
Kidnappings & Abductions:
- On January 7, three men were kidnapped by suspected SNA fighters from the village of Khirbet Shiran in Aleppo.
Unexploded Ordnance (UXO) Incidents:
- On January 7, one male civilian was killed after accidentally triggering an unexploded landmine outside the village of Afes in southern Idlib.
- On January 7, two civilians were killed when they accidentally triggered an unexploded munition in al-Taliha, northeastern Idlib.
- On January 7, four children were injured after triggering a cluster munition in the Qubtan al-Jabal area of western Aleppo.
- On January 7, four civilians were injured after accidentally triggering an unexploded landmine in the al-Harai desert area outside al-Bukamal near the Iraqi border in Deir ez Zour.
- On January 7, two children were injured after accidentally triggering an unexploded munition in al-Sanamayn, Daraa.
- On January 8, two civilians were killed after accidentally triggering an unexploded landmine in the Jazal area outside Palmyra, Homs.
- On January 8, one civilian was killed after accidentally triggering an unexploded munition while riding his motorcycle in Tel al-Laban outside Tel Tamr, Hasakeh.
- On January 8, a farmer was killed when his tractor triggered an unexploded munition in the village of Herbel in northern Aleppo.
- On January 8, a child was injured after accidentally triggering an unexploded munition in the village of Ain al-Zakar in western Daraa.
- On January 9, a child was injured when they accidentally triggered an unexploded munition in the village of Ayn Dakhar in the Yarmouk Basin, Daraa.
Force Restructuring & Training:
- Media reporting inside Syria claimed that the Ministry of Defense had concluded agreements with "most" armed factions in the country to restructure the country’s armed forces. The SNA in northern Aleppo and factions in Suwayda reportedly agreed to fold into the new army, while defected officers in the FSA would be provided "special roles."

Internal Stability & Humanitarian Security

On January 7, the 8th heavy lift plane of Saudi aid landed into Damascus International Airport.
On January 7, a convoy of trucked Jordanian aid also arrived into southern Syria.
On January 9, the Syrian Arab Red Crescent dismissed all "advisors" previously hired by Assad-appointed SARC President Khaled Hboubati.
On January 9, Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced that a total of 52,622 Syrians had returned from Turkey to Syria since Assad’s fall on December 8.
On January 7, the Ministry of Internal Trade and Consumer Protection announced that anyone found to be illegally reselling or trading in humanitarian aid would face a fine of $3,000-$5,000.
On January 8, the Syrian Ministry of Justice declared that steps were being initiated to re-arrest individuals released from Syria’s prison network who should still be in detention for genuine crimes.
On January 8, Syria’s Ministry of Justice called on citizens to handover all documentation seized from official buildings back to the ministry within 7 days.
On January 8, an HTS-linked "Syrian Coast Guard" began operating off the coast of Tartus.
On January 9, unidentified gunmen launched a brief attack on an HTS checkpoint in the al-Rumaylah district of Jableh, Latakia, severely injuring one HTS fighter.
On January 9, two unidentified men filmed themselves destroying a small Alawite shrine in the village of Fan Qibli in rural Hama.
On January 10, one child was shot dead in crossfire during a brief clash between unidentified gunmen outside Jaramana south of Damascus.
On January 10, heavy clashes erupted between rival families in the village of al-Kusabja, Quneitra, triggering military intervention by HTS-linked forces.

Relevant Context

The HTS-led transitional government's extensive diplomatic engagements this week, particularly with Bahrain, Italy, and the U.S., mark a significant shift in Syria's international standing following the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. These meetings, which included discussions on sanctions relief and future cooperation, indicate a potential move towards broader international recognition and reintegration for the new administration. This comes amidst ongoing efforts by Germany and France within the EU to explore sanctions waivers, highlighting a growing international appetite to support Syria's recovery and stability under its new leadership.

The widespread unexploded ordnance (UXO) incidents reported across Idlib, Aleppo, Homs, Hasakeh, Deir ez Zour, and Daraa underscore the severe and lingering humanitarian threat posed by years of conflict. These incidents, often involving landmines and cluster munitions, disproportionately affect civilians, particularly children, and impede safe movement and reconstruction efforts. The continued presence of such hazards highlights the immense challenge of post-conflict clearance and the urgent need for international support in demining operations to ensure civilian safety and facilitate recovery.