SITREP: 28 Dec 2024 - 3 Jan 2025 | SALT Strategic Advisory

SYRIA SITREP: 2024-12-28 - 2025-01-03 (Published: 2025-01-04)

Executive Summary

The reporting period saw significant diplomatic engagement for Syria's HTS-led transitional government, with high-level meetings involving Ukrainian, Kuwaiti, GCC, U.S., UN, Saudi, Omani, German, French, and Lebanese officials. These interactions focused on international support for the transition, economic recovery, and addressing humanitarian concerns. Domestically, key appointments were made across government and military sectors, including the first female Central Bank president. Economic initiatives included discussions on major investment projects and plans to revitalize power infrastructure, alongside the announcement of resumed commercial flights to Damascus. Security remained a complex challenge, marked by ongoing HTS-led operations targeting former regime elements and criminal networks across various governorates, particularly Homs, Latakia, and Damascus. Clashes between SNA and SDF forces intensified in Aleppo and Raqqa, often involving Turkish drone strikes. Unexploded ordnance continued to pose a significant threat to civilians, especially in Idlib and Raqqa. Suwayda saw local Druze militias assert control over security, intercepting an HTS convoy.

Main shifts in trends observed this week include increased international recognition and direct engagement with the HTS-led transition, particularly from Arab and European states. There is a clear focus on economic revitalization and infrastructure repair by the interim government. Persistent internal security challenges, particularly from unexploded ordnance and ongoing clashes in the northeast, continue to impact civilian safety.

Key watchpoints for the coming period include the extent to which international diplomatic engagement translates into tangible economic support and reconstruction efforts. Additionally, the ability of the HTS-led government to consolidate internal security and integrate diverse armed factions, especially in sensitive areas like Suwayda and Daraa, will be critical.

Detailed Analysis

1. Politics

International Engagements and Diplomatic Outreach

On December 30, HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, interim Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaybani, and interim Intelligence chief Anas Khattab met with Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha and other Ukrainian officials in Damascus. Shaybani declared a strategic partnership, while Sybiha expressed readiness to help investigate crimes by the former regime and Russia.
Also on December 30, the same HTS-led delegation met with Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Abdullah Ali al-Yahya and the Secretary General of the GCC, Jassim al-Badawi. Shaybani sought support for a new future and called for the lifting of sanctions, a sentiment echoed by Yahya.
Syria’s interim Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaybani received phone calls from the Foreign Ministers of Iraq, Morocco, Sudan, and Yemen on December 30, discussing strengthening bilateral ties.
On December 31, the U.S. Embassy in Damascus confirmed a delegation had met with the HTS-led transition and civil society figures in Damascus, stressing the need to determine the fate of missing U.S. citizens and for an inclusive transition.
HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa met with Assistant Secretary General and Regional Director for Arab States at the UN Development Programme, Abdullah al-Dardari, in Damascus on December 31.
Syria’s interim Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaybani convened a meeting with the EU’s Special Envoy to Syria Michael Ohnmacht on December 31.
A delegation from the HTS-led transition, including Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaybani, Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra, and Intelligence chief Anas Khattab, landed in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, late on January 1. On January 2, they held meetings with Saudi Foreign Minister Faysal bin Farhan al-Saud and Saudi Arabia’s military and intelligence leaderships.
On January 1, Syria’s interim Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaybani held a phone call with Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, who pledged Oman’s support for Syria’s transition, reconstruction, development, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.
On January 3, HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa and interim Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaybani hosted a visit by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot (representing the EU) in Damascus. They visited Sednaya Prison. Barrot stressed France’s support for a peaceful transition, offering technical and legal assistance for constitution drafting and chemical weapons dismantling. Baerbock stated EU sanctions would not be removed until an inclusive and peaceful new administration was established.
On January 3, Lebanon's caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, held a telephone conversation with HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, discussing bilateral ties.

Domestic Governance and Appointments

On December 30, the HTS-led transition announced the appointment of Maysa Sabrine as the first female president of Syria’s Central Bank.
Mohammed al-Faysal was announced as the spokesman for the HTS-led transitional government on December 30.
Mohsena al-Maythawi was appointed as Suwayda’s governor on December 30, nominated locally and confirmed by the HTS-led transitional government.
Dr Diana al-Asmar was announced as the new president of Damascus’ University Children’s Hospital on December 30.
On December 31, Murhaf Abu Qasra was officially appointed as Syria’s Minister of Defense.
On December 31, the HTS-led transition announced a further 6 military promotions, adding to 49 from the previous day, bringing the total to 55 new officers, including non-Syrian citizens from various factions.
On December 31, the interim Ministry of Health announced Dr’s. Nahla Fayoumi and Kinda al-Shawa as General Directors of Damascus’ Surgical Eye Hospital and the University Hospital for Dermatology, respectively.
Qutaiba Ahmed Badawi was appointed as the director of Syria’s General Authority for Land and Sea Ports on December 31.
Ibrahim Shahsho was appointed as the Mufti of Aleppo and the Dean of the Sharia Faculty in Aleppo University by the HTS-led transition on December 31.
On December 30, HTS-linked security and governing officials held a series of meetings with local notables, Christian leaders, military and police commanders, and other social figures from across Daraa to discuss the security and economic situation.
On December 31, HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa hosted a large meeting with the leaders of the Christian churches across Syria in Damascus.
News emerged on December 31 that HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa had held a “positive” meeting with an SDF delegation from Syria’s northeast.
On December 31, HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa hosted a meeting (alongside Minister of Defense Murhaf Abu Qasra) with the leadership of the SNA’s Joint Force in Damascus.
On December 31, HTS military and political leaders traveled to Suwayda and held a meeting with tribal, religious, and academic representatives of Suwayda’s Bedouin community.
On December 31, military leaders from the HTS-led military coalition and the newly appointed Governor Amr al-Sheikh traveled in Rif Dimashq to hold meetings with notables in Zabadani, Jaramana, and Wadi Barada.
On January 2, military leaders from the HTS-led military coalition and the newly appointed Governor Amr al-Sheikh traveled in Rif Dimashq to hold meetings with notables in Jabal Hermon and Qatanah.
On January 1, Druze spiritual leader Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri declared that he remained in daily contact with the HTS-led transition in Damascus, but that Druze militias would not relinquish their weapons until a representative new government had been formed.
On December 30, the president of the Syrian National Coalition, Hadi al-Bahra, confirmed no communication with the HTS-led transition and no invitation to the upcoming National Conference, but planned to establish the SNC’s headquarters in Damascus.
On December 31, the General Statistics Officer Mohammed Mousa announced that a general census across Syria would begin work within a week.
On January 2, Syria’s interim Minister of Education, Nazir al-Qadri, announced that recently revealed amendments to educational curricula were proposals and not confirmed, with changes only relating to the deletion of texts lauding Assad’s regime and the change of Syria’s flag.
On December 30, the head of Women’s Affairs in the HTS-led transition, Aysha al-Dibs, hosted a meeting with a delegation of female figures involved in the search for missing people and achieving justice and accountability for regime disappearances.

2. Business

Economic Revitalization and Infrastructure

On December 30, Syria’s interim Minister of Economy, Bassel Abdulaziz, announced that Arab governments had submitted “proposals” for “major investment projects” across Syria, which the ministry was assessing. Abdulaziz also stated that an inventory and assessment of all companies and property previously owned by Rami Makhlouf was underway.
Media reporting in Turkey on December 30 claimed consideration was being given to using Turkish-built Karpowerships to provide electricity to Syria via floating power plants.
Engineers repaired the main power transformer serving Aleppo city on December 30, after a major power outage. Transitional authorities in the city also announced that a second transformer would be repaired in the coming weeks.

Air Connectivity and Border Trade

Qatar Airways announced on January 2 that it would begin regular commercial flights between Doha and Damascus beginning on January 7, with three flights per week initially.
The Kassab border crossing between Turkey and Latakia was formally re-opened on December 30, for the first time in over a decade.
On December 30, the HTS-led transitional government took over authority of the Jarablus border crossing with Turkey.
On December 31, the HTS-led transition took over authority of the al-Rai border crossing with Turkey.
The newly appointed Director of the Nassib Crossing with Jordan, Khaled al-Barad, announced on December 31 an agreement with Jordan for Syrians abroad with valid residency or visas for Jordan to be eligible for return to Syria via Jordanian territory beginning on January 1, 2025.

3. Security

HTS-led Security Operations and Detentions

On December 30, HTS-linked GSS forces launched a search operation in Ras al-Marah in the Qalamoun, Rif Dimashq, resulting in heavy gunfire, at least one man killed, and 30 others captured.
On December 30, HTS-linked security forces captured a drug smuggling cell in rural Hama, seizing a quantity of drugs.
On December 30, HTS-linked General Security Service (GSS) forces captured a close relative of a notorious regime warlord in rural Hama.
On December 31, HTS-linked GSS forces launched a targeted raid in the Mezzeh district of Damascus, briefly engaging in a heavy armed clash with wanted regime figures, capturing three men.
On December 31, HTS security forces seized control of a large-scale regime captagon factory located inside the former headquarters of the Fourth Division in Damascus.
On December 31, HTS-linked GSS forces launched a search operation in Talbiseh, Homs, looking for wanted regime figures, capturing a total of nine men.
On December 31, HTS-led forces launched a search operation in al-Mayadin, Deir ez Zour, looking for wanted regime criminals.
On January 1, HTS-linked forces captured Hassan Mousa al-Ibrahim in Qatana, Rif Dimashq, a notorious regime militiaman.
On January 1, HTS-linked security forces captured a former member of the regime’s Republican Guard in Latakia, wanted for a series of crimes.
On January 2, HTS-linked forces launched a search operation in Jableh, Latakia, looking for wanted former regime members. Local residents captured a man accused of attempting to set fire to an Alawite shrine and handed him over to HTS-linked forces.
On January 2, at least 20 alleged regime criminals were captured by HTS-linked forces in coordinated raids in the Akramah and Wadi al-Zahhab districts of Homs. Some were allegedly linked to the 2012 Karam al-Zeitoun massacre.
On January 3, the operation in Homs continued, expanding into the Abbasiyah, al-Sabil, and al-Zahraa districts. At least 21 people detained on January 2 were released after agreeing to sign reconciliation agreements.
On January 3, a large number of alleged regime loyalists were detained by HTS-linked forces during a two-day security campaign in villages in eastern Homs (around al-Makhrim).
On January 3, HTS-linked forces launched a search operation inside and surrounding the town of Maarshhour in eastern Hama, following reports of regime loyalists hiding.
On January 3, HTS-linked forces launched a series of targeted raids in search of regime loyalists and militiamen in Aleppo city, resulting in several arrests.
On January 3, HTS-linked security forces detained Nada al-Ghabra and Lama al-Sawaf in Damascus, on charges of complicity in the enforced disappearance of children and financial crimes linked to Asma al-Assad.
On January 3, HTS-led forces safely detonated several landmines that regime forces had laid around the Air Force Intelligence headquarters in Daraa city.
On January 3, HTS-linked forces launched a large-scale security operation in the village of al-Safsafah in rural Tartus, searching for regime loyalists and militiamen.
On January 3, at least ten alleged regime militiamen were captured by HTS-linked forces during a targeted raid in al-Bukamal, Deir ez Zour.

Clashes, External Strikes, and Assassinations

On December 30, Israeli military forces launched an incursion and search operation in Salam (al-Baath) in Quneitra, involving tanks and armored vehicles, searching state buildings, banks, a bakery, and homes. IDF personnel remained stationed in Maariyah and al-Jamla.
On December 30, a group of unidentified gunmen launched a brief attack on HTS-led coalition forces in the al-Hamdaniyah district of Aleppo city, triggering heavy clashes.
On December 30, at least five combatants were killed and several others injured after SDF fighters launched artillery barrages targeting SNA positions in Abu Qalqak southeast of Manbij, Aleppo, and then a cross-line incursion.
On December 30, SNA fighters launched a brief attack on SDF frontline positions near al-Sayideen on the road towards the Tishreen Dam, Aleppo, triggering clashes.
On December 30, SNA fighters launched artillery shells at SDF frontline positions in al-Fatisah, Ain Issa district, Raqqa.
On December 30, Turkish military forces launched an artillery barrage towards SDF positions in Umm al-Kayf, Tel Tamr district, Raqqa.
On December 30, Turkish-backed SNA fighters launched mortar and heavy machine gun fire towards SDF frontline positions in al-Tarwaziyeh, Suluk district, Raqqa, triggering clashes.
On December 30, one man was killed by unidentified gunmen during an attack on his home in Benin, Idlib.
On December 30, one man was kidnapped by unidentified gunmen and shot in rural Latakia, accused of refusing to reconcile.
On December 31, three SDF-linked militiamen were killed and seven others injured in a Turkish drone strike that targeted them in the al-Ashrafiyah district of Aleppo city.
On December 31, one man was shot dead by unidentified gunmen in Aleppo city.
On December 31, SDF forces launched an attempted cross-line incursion into SNA-controlled areas along the Abu Qalqal frontline in northeastern Aleppo, triggering heavy fighting and leaving Shish al-Bobanah in SDF control. Turkish artillery shelled SDF positions.
On December 31, a Turkish drone strike targeted an SDF-linked Asayish checkpoint in the village of al-Hisha, Ain Issa district, Raqqa.
On December 31, one man was kidnapped and later executed by unidentified gunmen in al-Shayhah in rural Hama.
On December 31, two men were executed by unidentified gunmen who stormed their residence in the village of al-Jabriyah in eastern Homs.
On December 31, an unidentified fighter jet launched several airstrikes targeting former buildings and positions associated with Iranian proxy militias in the al-Quriya region of eastern Deir ez Zour.
On December 31, a convoy of HTS-linked GSS forces attempted to enter Suwayda but were intercepted by local Druze militiamen and forced to return to Damascus.
On January 1, SNA fighters launched artillery barrages targeting SDF positions in villages outside Abu Rasin, Hasakeh.
On January 1, one man (Fahd al-Diyab) was shot dead by unidentified assassins soon after returning to his hometown of al-Sanamayn, Daraa.
On January 1, two combatants were killed and three others injured when rival groups of Bedouin gunmen engaged in heavy clashes in Dhniyba outside Izraa, Daraa. HTS-led security forces intervened.
On January 1, several drugs smugglers were killed and injured when their attempt to traffic drugs into neighboring Jordan was intercepted by Jordanian armed forces in Suwayda.
On January 1, at least four combatants were killed in a heavy armed clash between rival gunmen in Majadel, Suwayda, triggered by a dispute over a newly seized regime military vehicle.
On January 2, Israeli military forces advanced towards the al-Mantara Dam in rural Quneitra.
On January 2, Israeli airstrikes targeted several former regime positions and assets in Tel al-Shahm in Rif Dimashq (90th Brigade base) and the regime’s former Defense Factories in al-Safira south of Aleppo.
On January 2, at least 12 combatants were killed when SNA fighters launched an assault on SDF frontline positions on the road towards the Tishreen Dam, Aleppo, triggering heavy clashes.
On January 2, one man was shot dead by unidentified gunmen in the village of al-Bayt al-Atiq, Tartus.
On January 2, one man was kidnapped by unidentified gunmen, while a female relative was assaulted during an attack on their residence in Kafr Zeita, Hama. The man’s executed body was later discovered.
On January 2, SNA fighters launched artillery shells towards SDF positions in Umm al-Baramil near Ain Issa, Raqqa.
On January 2, a local militia leader (Mohsen al-Haymid) returned to al-Sanamayn, Daraa, and was challenged by local residents, triggering heavy gunfire and a brief clash.
On January 2, unidentified gunmen conducted a drive-by shooting targeting the home of a local tribal leader in al-Jamrah, Lajat, Daraa.
On January 3, as many as 24 combatants were reportedly killed in heavy direct clashes between SNA and SDF forces southeast of Manbij and near the Tishreen Dam, Aleppo. Turkish military shelled SDF frontline positions.
On January 3, a Turkish drone strike targeted an SDF-linked position outside Maskanah, Aleppo. Another Turkish drone strike targeted an SDF position in Bujaq outside Sarrin, Aleppo.
On January 3, gunmen affiliated with the Free Syrian Army’s Coastal Division kidnapped three Alawite men in rural Latakia, and issued ransom demands.
On January 3, one SNA fighter was shot dead by unidentified assassins in Ras al-Ayn, Hasakeh. Later that day, another SNA fighter was assassinated in Ras al-Ayn.
On January 3, a Turkish drone strike targeted the municipal headquarters building in the town of al-Huriyah northwest of Raqqa.
On January 3, a Syrian Civil Defense (White Helmets) volunteer was shot dead by unidentified gunmen while on duty in Damascus.
On January 3, local residents in the village of Serghaya, Rif Dimashq, opened fire on Lebanese soldiers attempting to construct an earth berm along the border. The HTS-led transition intervened, calling for a stand down until border demarcation was decided.

Explosive Remnants of War (ERW)

On December 30, two civilians were killed when they accidentally triggered an unexploded munition in al-Salamiyah district, Hama.
On December 30, five children were injured when they accidentally triggered an unexploded munition in the Suluk district of northern Raqqa.
On December 31, one civilian was killed and two others were injured when they accidentally triggered an unexploded munition in the village of Shish al-Bubnah outside Manbij, Aleppo.
On December 31, one man was killed when he accidentally triggered an unexploded munition in the village of al-Baghliyah in western Deir ez Zour.
On December 31, two children were injured when they accidentally triggered an unexploded munition in the village of al-Hassaniyah, Deir ez Zour.
On December 31, one man was injured after accidentally triggered an unexploded munition in the village of al-Husseiniyah, Deir ez Zour.
On January 2, one HTS fighter was killed during an attempt to defuse an unexploded landmine outside Kafr Batikh, Idlib.
On January 3, five civilians were injured when they accidentally triggered an unexploded landmine in the village of al-Fatira, Idlib.
On January 3, three civilians were injured when they accidentally triggered an unexploded cluster munition outside the village of Kafr Lahf, Suwayda.

ISIS Activity

On December 30, two SDF-linked Asayish fighters were injured when a small group of ISIS militants launched a motorbike-borne attack on their checkpoint in al-Dashishah in southern Hasakeh.
Shortly after the attack on December 30, SDF forces launched a raid on a nearby location suspected to contain an ISIS cell, triggering a clash in which several combatants were injured.
On December 30, SDF forces launched a raid targeting ISIS suspects in Hasakeh city, capturing at least three suspects.
Later on December 30, ISIS militants threw several grenades at an SDF checkpoint in Hasakeh city’s Ghweiran district before opening fire.
On December 31, one SDF fighter was killed when ISIS militants launched a brief attack on an SDF checkpoint between al-Hol and Tel Hamis in Hasakeh.
On December 31, a small cell of ISIS militants threw at least one grenade at an SDF-linked Asayish checkpoint in Qamishli in Hasakeh, but no casualties were caused.
On December 31, the French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu announced that French fighter jets had launched strikes on ISIS positions in Syria on December 29, thought to be in the central desert.
On January 3, three suspected ISIS militants were captured by SDF forces during a raid in al-Huwayj in eastern Deir ez Zour.

Relevant Context

The recent surge in international diplomatic engagement with the HTS-led transitional government marks a significant shift from the previous regime's isolation. For over a decade, the Assad regime faced widespread international sanctions and diplomatic ostracization due to its human rights abuses and role in the civil war. The overthrow of Assad in December 2024 has opened a new chapter, with countries like Ukraine, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Germany, and France now directly engaging with the new administration. This engagement is driven by a desire to stabilize Syria, address the ongoing humanitarian crisis, and potentially facilitate reconstruction, signaling a cautious but notable move towards recognizing the new de facto authority.

The persistent issue of unexploded ordnance (UXO) and landmines across Syria, as highlighted by numerous civilian casualties this week, is a direct and tragic legacy of the prolonged conflict. Years of intense fighting, aerial bombardments, and ground operations by various factions have left vast areas contaminated with explosive remnants of war. These devices, often hidden or camouflaged, pose an indiscriminate threat to civilians, particularly children, who are frequently victims while playing or engaging in daily activities. The scale of contamination is immense, requiring extensive and long-term demining efforts, which are often hampered by lack of resources, security challenges, and the sheer volume of unmapped ordnance.